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Coronavirus Data on Countries Sized by Population

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Trends both Globally and for the USA appear to be heading in the Right Direction

By J Richard Fredericks, Main Management

The United States has the distinction of having the highest number of reported Coronavirus cases in the world with over 640,000 cases as well as the highest number of reported deaths at 28,306 (as of April 15th, 2020 around 2pm PST). Many observers have been focusing on the difficulties in Italy and Spain, but the numbers should be considered relative to the population of the country.  The US has 5.6 times the population of Italy and has 7 times the number of people in Spain.

In the following tables, we show the absolute number of reported Covid-19 cases for the 25 countries which have the largest number of infections so far but we follow that by laying out total cases per million in population; the deaths per million in population; and the number of tests per million in population … all as of April 15th, 2020 around 2pm PST (as reported by worldometers.info).

 

Rank

Country Number of COVID-19 cases
1 USA 640,185
2 Spain 177,633
3 Italy 165,155
4 France 147,863
5 Germany 133,456
6 UK 98,476
7 China 82,295
8 Iran 76,389
9 Turkey 69,392
10 Belgium 33,573
11 Brazil 28,320
12 Canada 28,205
13 Netherlands 28,153
14 Switzerland 26,336
15 Russia 24,490
16 Portugal 18,091
17 Austria 14,336
18 Ireland 12,547
19 Israel 12,501
20 India 12,322
21 Sweden 11,927
22 Peru 11,475
23 S. Korea 10,591
24 Chile 8,273
25 Japan 8,100
 

Rank

Country COVID-19 cases per million of population
1 India 9
2 China 57
3 Japan 64
4 Brazil 133
5 Russia 168
6 S. Korea 207
7 Peru 348
8 Chile 433
9 Canada 747
10 Turkey 823
11 Iran 909
12 Sweden 1,181
13 Israel 1,444
14 UK 1,451
15 Austria 1,592
16 Germany 1,593
17 Netherlands 1,643
18 Portugal 1,774
19 USA 1,934
20 France 2,265
21 Ireland 2,541
22 Italy 2,732
23 Belgium 2,897
24 Switzerland 3,043
25 Spain 3,799

It remains too early to really feel comfortable that the numbers are truly accurate for all countries as we believe that some countries may not be entirely truthful (think China and Russia) while some may not yet have the capability to keeping close tabs on the numbers (Iran, Brazil). The numerator of the equation – the number of cases for people who have actually contracted the Coronavirus is fairly well known, but the denominator of the equation – the number of those that currently have or have had the virus is not well known as the testing has not been extensive and/or universally applied.

 

Rank

Country COVID-19 deaths per million of population
1 India 0.3
2 Japan 1
3 Russia 1
4 China 2
5 S. Korea 4
6 Chile 5
7 Brazil 8
8 Peru 8
9 Israel 15
10 Turkey 18
11 Canada 27
12 Germany 43
13 Austria 44
14 Iran 57
15 Portugal 59
16 USA 86
17 Ireland 90
18 Sweden 119
19 Switzerland 143
20 Netherlands 183
21 UK 190
22 France 263
23 Italy 358
24 Belgium 383
25 Spain 397
 

Rank

Country Number of tests per million of population
1 Switzerland 22,993
2 Germany 20,629
3 Portugal 18,798
4 Italy 18,481
5 Ireland 18,358
6 Austria 17,410
7 Israel 13,557
8 Spain 12,833
9 Canada 11,942
10 Belgium 11,056
11 S. Korea 10,426
12 Russia 10,402
13 USA 9,728
14 Netherlands 8,220
15 Sweden 7,387
16 UK 5,876
17 Turkey 5,664
18 France 5,114
19 Chile 4,806
20 Iran 3,562
21 Peru 3,318
22 Japan 708
23 Brazil 296
24 India 177
25 China N/A

The standout of the Top 25 countries ranked by number of COVID-19 cases is South Korea, which has relatively few deaths per million of population (only 4) while testing slightly more than 10,000 per million of population. While that latter number would rank 11th highest of the Top 25 countries, South Korea was very early and very aggressive with their testing.

While not amongst the Top 25 countries with the largest number of COVID-19 cases, Taiwan is a real standout (especially given their proximity to China) with only 395 cases and 6 deaths. Sized by population, Taiwan has had only 17 cases per million people, 0.3 deaths per million, and 2,089 tests per million in population.

At this point, the USA numbers are essentially around the middle of the experience of the 25 countries.  As noted above, the US has the largest number of reported cases, but on a population adjusted view, our country currently would rank either in the middle of the experience of nations with the 25 highest reported number of cases, or a bit below the middle of the pack.

Relative to our country’s total population, the USA would rank 19th out of 25 countries for the number of cases per million in population (1,934 cases per million); but we would rank 16th in deaths per million (86 per million) and rank 13th in tests per million (9,728 per million). After a slow start, the number of test kits are finally starting to become more widespread, which should result in a better reported experience and move the USA numbers to better levels.

We are particularly encouraged that recent numbers suggest a peaking trend in the total number of cases and deaths from the virus. As evidence, since the beginning of April, the number of new cases per day has been essentially flat with the figures trending from 26,655 on April 1st to 26,299 on April 15th. At the same time, the daily reported recoveries have now surpassed the number of newly reported deaths, as the number of recoveries have increased more than fivefold from 9,147 on April 1st to 47,942 on April 15th.

We are encouraged that the trends are starting to move in the right direction.

A pioneer in managing all-ETF portfolios, Main Management LLC is committed to delivering liquid, transparent and cost-effective investment solutions. By combining asset allocation insights with smart implementation vehicles, Main Management offers a unique approach that translates into distinct advantages for our clients, including diversification, cost efficiency, tax awareness and transparency. http://www.mainmgt.com

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